This is really a complex situation, not only for shooters but also for the pellet manufacturers and the gun manufacturers.
It is pretty well accepted that firearms shooters have moved into airguns to continue shooting during this time of shortage/obscene prices of both factory loaded ammunition and reloading components (mostly primers).
But what happens when firearms ammo supply starts to catch up with demand again? Yeah, pricing will likely be higher (at least initially), but when they can reasonably burn powder again, what proportion of new airgun shooters will sideline their new airguns and go back to their powder burners?
For anyone who has been around long enough or has read about these shortage events, they have always been (to date) cyclic. They are based mostly on politics and military ammo contracts, and the politics part of the equation can be so multi-faceted as it may cause new restrictive laws to go into effect, and/or cause a whole new crop of shooters to get into firearms for the first time. As can world events (like during the COVID crisis starting last year, when a lot of the snowflakes finally woke up and realized "Wow, I guess that the Government won't really protect me like they have been saying they will.")
But the constant in all of this has been the cyclical nature. Folks have been heard to say that "ammo prices will never get as low as they used to be." Sometimes this is true, but on the other hand, prices always drop when there is a surplus of supply, and ammo can get to within pennies of what it cost 'in the good old days.'
So the pellet manufacturers, who are bright folks, will look at these repeating, cyclic, historic trends, and wonder whether to invest in additional equipment, personnel, training and factory space. And they will see that demand (and pricing) will likely go down again as the cycle plays out. Some powder burners will go back to exclusively burning powder as ammunition/components become available. Some folks who shot airguns at their homes because it was something to do during COVID lockdowns will go back to their other hobbies when things normalize further. Others will just move from airguns to their next area of interest. Demand will slacken from its current levels.
Equipment, personnel and factory floorspace are by no means free, and when a factory finds itself in a situation where its capacity significantly exceeds demand, it starts to lose money. This is not a lightswitch which can be easily turned on and off. I don't foresee pellet manufacturers making significant investments to increase capacity to deal with the current cyclic and transient surge in demand.
Of course the other fly in the ointment regarding pellets is the ongoing worldwide logistics issues. How many shipping containers of pellets are waiting to go onto ships, are crossing the oceans right now, or are waiting to be off-loaded at backed-up U.S. ports? Want JSB variant (FX branded) 18.1 gr pellets? Buy all you want at Krale right now. They have supply, potentially because they don't have to depend on trans-oceanic shipment to get their stock.
The last thing about this crisis is how it is affecting airgun manufacturers? One would think that they might be selling fewer guns if folks can't buy the pellets to shoot in them (the original issue stated by the O.P. regarding a new first gun for his buddy). But so many guns seem to be either out of stock or in very limited supply - so has airgun manufacturing volume already been decreased, or has the pellet shortage not yet impacted airgun sales? Personally I was looking at a gun just this morning. Of course I need another gun like another hole in my head, and this one was kind of a specialty gun (.257 cal). Gun is available, but virtually nothing to feed it. That made the decision for me - why purchase a new gun now if you won't be able to shoot it for months or a year?
The pellet shortage helped my bank account, at least for today.
. 
