Is there luck involved in winning the EBR?

I know if I had a super consistent and accurate air rifle, using high BC sorted and weighed pellets going fast, I'd stand more of "chance" to win- (that's where preparation by paying the price in time and effort, along with some luck, comes in).

Click to expand...

I'm of the opinion that "fast" really has nothing to do with accuracy or results. High BC - yes. Consistent, accurate gun - yes. Good shooting skills - yes. Luck - yes. Pellets going fast - not so much... I shot .30 JSB 44.75 grain pellets at 875 FPS straight from the tin. Certainly not "fast"....

Click to expand...

Ehh, I suppose one can launch a pellet only so fast anyway and stay within it's accuracy potential. But 875 fps isn't slow, right? Suppose that same 44 grainer was going 775 fps, which would give it less wind advantage, what then, how about 675 fps, see where I'm going with this, or what about 975 fps?? I think most would agree they would want the least drift possible even though it might not be much. Might the winner of the EBR, that has that high .048 BC (not exactly sure on that) going approx 1000 fps, have a wind advantage??

In my example and only to make a point, "it's assumed" for the sake of discussion, that these 100 fps step speeds are in a node and a speed that any particular pellet can be it's most accurate in a particular rifle, or so close it is hard to differentiate on paper. 

Honestly I'm not a benchrest shooter per say. But I do have this other story which relates as far as the windage thing goes in pellet rifles. My normal FT rifle sends 10.3's with approx BC of .032 at 930 fps and I can't remember not at least hitting the face plate in a match but I probably blocked the horribleness of the thought out, lol. Well one day I tried my 22 cal Royale in a FT match, with 16's, with that same .03-ish BC going around 750 fps in a FT comp, darn if I didn't miss two targets that day in windy conditions of 5-8 mph, and on top of that a dismal score. The Royale is just as accurate as my other rifle. 

On another note BC is somewhat related to speed, right?? 

Man I've got plenty of stories that are firearms related concerning this kind of stuff. 

I'd certainly take accuracy first if the wind drift difference is only at a slight penalty, how much is the question, an x rings difference, a 10 rings difference, half the 9 ring??

@steve123, read the link below for a better understanding of how pellets react in the wind with relation to speed and BC.

https://www.airgunnation.com/topic/is-faster-always-better-in-the-wind/

The "sweet spot" for the 44.75 pellets is in the general area of 875 to 925 FPS, which is where the highest BC exists for that pellet. Higher brings lower BC, lower brings lower BC. For an ST barrel, anything higher than 900 results in a reduction in accuracy (not sure of STX barrels, since I shoot an old Bobcat). So I tuned my gun for the best accuracy, best BC, and best efficiency. I get in excess of 4 magazines per 250 bar fill (9 pellets per mag), could probably get 5 magazines if I pushed it before coming off reg., and with no wind can shoot MOA at 100 yards all day long...

Randomness/probability/luck - call it whatever. It is a factor in shooting sports.

An unforeseen gust of wind right when breaking a shot could be considered back luck. Unless it happens to blow an otherwise bad shot right into the bullseye - then it's good luck.

Over time, and enough events, good/bad luck balances out.

If you flip a coin 5 times and it comes up heads every time, that's luck. When shooting at a 1moa target, indoors, off a bench, with a 1moa (total standard deviation) rifle - if you hit that target every time, you got lucky. (The probability of one SD is about 68%).

When the top three or four shooters at large events are close in score, any one of them can win/lose - there is likely some luck involved. When the same shooter is frequently in the top three or four, at multiple events, that is skill.

@steve123, read the link below for a better understanding of how pellets react in the wind with relation to speed and BC.

https://www.airgunnation.com/topic/is-faster-always-better-in-the-wind/

The "sweet spot" for the 44.75 pellets is in the general area of 875 to 925 FPS, which is where the highest BC exists for that pellet. Higher brings lower BC, lower brings lower BC. For an ST barrel, anything higher than 900 results in a reduction in accuracy (not sure of STX barrels, since I shoot an old Bobcat). So I tuned my gun for the best accuracy, best BC, and best efficiency. I get in excess of 4 magazines per 250 bar fill (9 pellets per mag), could probably get 5 magazines if I pushed it before coming off reg., and with no wind can shoot MOA at 100 yards all day long...

Click to expand...

All of this is very interesting!

And it is probably just as you say it is with your Bobcat compared to your other rifles. Though anecdotal since there is always variance when it comes to wind affects and is not confirmed by an adequate amount of test review samples over many rifles. Very well could be fact that those 44's do not work well past the speeds you stated. I recently turned my 30 up to 922 fps and they did not work well at that speed so I will continue to back it off until they tune in.

However there exists different rifling profiles, and twist rates, as well as different pellet shapes which can affect the "whole equation". There is a theory that rifling engraving on pellets affects inflight characteristics, including wind drift. Say for instance your Edgun had standard rifling and your Bobcat has more of a polygonal shaped etching on the pellet. Could be a reason why the drift seems the same or less on the faster gun.

Let's say for example the 30 cal 50 grainers were going 1000 fps, didn't have much engraving on them, shot well at that speed. Even though a ballistic calculator gives a solution that solution might not exactly reflect actuality. Not saying they are always off but....

We've all seen the wobbly pellet videos where the pellet isn't perfectly stable, right? That has to have negative affects retarding velocity downrange, the wind drift, etc. My point being unless the barrel, twist rate, speed, etc, aren't optimal for the specific pellet you are shooting then downrange performance will decay.

So when I say "fast" I mean for one pellet and rifle combination. We know from the EBR results that at least one certain pellet at a higher velocity than would be considered normal did exceptionally well. 

If you we disagree in opinion that's fine, it's all good with me, I don't have to be right, and might not be, but these are my thoughts on the subject. No hard feelings whatsoever BTW. I think you are a great asset to this forum!

Steve, thanks and no worries. One thing I didn’t say was that Accuracy always trumps BC. So the .22 RD Monsters seem to shoot more accurately at higher speeds where their BC might be slightly lower. But accuracy wins...