Unpleasant thought- but reality

Jump to latest Follow Reply
rangur1

rangur1

Member
Jan 4, 2018
2,848
1,802
peoples republic of New York
POLITICS ASIDE! - while I can probably assume the leanings on this forum. The thought is about the continuing inflation hitting everyday americans and how much it will reflect on air gun prices in the near future. Do you think it will be a 5% increase? 7%? 10%? That would be a jump of $100-$200 on an Impact, $75-$150 on a Taipan , $50-$100 on say, a Daystate huntsman regal. and less on the $800 and lower guns but similar percentage. Now that may not seem budget busting, however , that is alongside increased cost across the board for essentials. Air guns are a hobby, for some of us it is life, LOL! 

Wasn't intending to bring down peoples mood. I was just pondering how we as a group , help each other out for the benefit of us all. Currently I bought a Gun from a big box outlet because they enabled payment plans. The smaller dealers don't have that option. I want to patronize them, but my budget sometimes doesn't allow that. This entire post is intended to bounce ideas off one another and maybe create a plan that will improve things for all air gunners as well as air gun vendors, we need to protect our hobby. 

Lastly- No political wise cracks pertaining to current or past administrations as to how we got here, we all believe what we believe, so don't make the moderator have to bust their ass removing political posts. Let's be constructive and try to come up with symbiotic working ideas. Sorry for the long winded speech! 
 
I don't think we've ever had an inflation quite like this one. Usually the economy is over heated, prices are rising, and the Fed raises rates to try and slow things. But this time, the supply of goods and services has been significantly affected by the pandemic. Hopefully, as we move past it, and into a healthier population, some of that impact will be eliminated. But it won't happen fast, and the typical family will have find ways to conserve spending. Discretionary spending, on things like air rifles, new cars, vacation homes, etc., will slow, allowing manufacturing and distribution to begin to rebuild. It will be a bumpy ride for investors, but if selling assets isn't needed to meet cash flow demands, that will be another temporary cycle, and the investor will be fine, perhaps realizing some buying opportunities.

Just my opinions, who knows?
 
Upvote 0
I am 66 years old and "retired". My wife is 4 years younger and owns a small business in which I help her with some menial tasks. Our strategy is simple: we will keep working to some extent, as long as we are physically able. It's the only way, unless extremely wealthy to avoid a huge step down in lifestyle when inflation constantly eats away at one's savings, none of which will matter when serious medical issues arise, and all the money will be gone.
 
Upvote 0
I don't think we've ever had an inflation quite like this one. Usually the economy is over heated, prices are rising, and the Fed raises rates to try and slow things. But this time, the supply of goods and services has been significantly affected by the pandemic. Hopefully, as we move past it, and into a healthier population, some of that impact will be eliminated. But it won't happen fast, and the typical family will have find ways to conserve spending. Discretionary spending, on things like air rifles, new cars, vacation homes, etc., will slow, allowing manufacturing and distribution to begin to rebuild. It will be a bumpy ride for investors, but if selling assets isn't needed to meet cash flow demands, that will be another temporary cycle, and the investor will be fine, perhaps realizing some buying opportunities.

Just my opinions, who knows?
Click to expand...

I really don't think that discretionary will slow that much, and that it will continue to exacerbate our monetary woes.

Until the Fed raises rates - not just threatens to raise rates - credit and also consumer credit is so cheap that most discretionary spending will just manifest as credit card debt. We're already seeing this - new credit card debt is mapping extremely well onto new consumer consumer spending.

Inflation will only slow when the demand for savings outweighs the demand for spending, i.e., interest rates rise. It seems like this is unlikely, tbh. Lots of folks addicted to swiping the plastic.
 
Upvote 0
Strictly airguns…

I’ve never grown an attachment to any gun. I’m not a “collector”. I shoot as a sport. Granted, my main interest is FT, both AAFTA and XFT so my shooting needs are somewhat specific. I don’t need a set of 1/4”, 3/8” 1/2” drive metric and SAE sockets; I just need one good “Crescent wrench”, maybe a set of “pliers”….

Now I’ve owned many. Always searching for that one unicorn but I’ve never had a problem with selling something and moving on. Yes, I have slightly regretted selling a few because I drank the Koolaid and it/they shot as good as the gun which replaced it.

I’m very happy with the few guns I currently own. They outshoot me. I’m the weak link money can’t fix. 

I am not suggesting you be more like me; just the opposite. Enjoy the sport/hobby/habit/addiction but just don’t do it to the extent it has an adverse effect on you finances. 

To the OP’s point…

Prices are not going to go down. Will they stop going up? Eventually. If you are eyeballing that fine looking euro dime piece over there I suggest you get it now. If you don’t, you will only pay more later. Two of my guns (one UK and one Euro) were purchased new in 2018 and 2020 respectively. Both have gone up almost 20%!! I could easily sell them for what I paid for them. 


I work in sales for one of the largest food companies in the world. Our sales are almost vertical but our costs are outpacing profits. Until we can make way in the head wind, you are going to see steadily rising prices in both food and everything else you buy. 




 
Upvote 0
Airgun and associated accessory prices are going up and will never come down again. The rate of inflation may come down at some point but the dollar will have lost much of its value. An air rifle has a physical value and cost to produce. A $100 bill only has the value of what it will buy. I remember in the 1970's, my parents were suffering from sticker shock as high inflation reduced the value of the dollar and prices of everything went through the roof. I'm afraid to say that we're all starting to feel just the beginning of that now.
 
Upvote 0
I know we all have to balance our budgets, and therefore balance where we spend our money. If you can afford to pay just a little more and buy from the smaller vendor that gives you that more personal service you should consider doing that. It is better for society as a whole to do this, but if you can’t afford to do that, then sell a kidney. Just kidding, if you can’t afford to shop small then of course do what you need to. Probably everything I just said is pretty obvious, but I am not the the most insightful person around. 

I do like that there the since of community on this forum though and how your questions address that going forward. I am fairly new here but am glad to have found you guy/girls. Actually I have been coming to the sight sometime longer than I have been a member, but haven’t felt like I had enough knowledge or experience to contribute anything. I still don’t have enough of either, but I do hope that I will one day be able to give back with knowledge as I have been given so much you all. 
 
Upvote 0
The solution for me is to be satisfied with what I already own. A new gun would certainly be nice, but honestly, I doubt that any gun will make a huge difference in my shooting skills. As for the necessities of life, I have no choice but to pay the going rate.

I'm old enough to remember Nixon's price and wage freeze attempting to control inflation. It seemed to work at first but later was blamed for the period of stagflation that followed.
 
Upvote 0
As many have noted, this is most similar to the inflation of the late 1970s'. At that time, the Condition of "stagflation" existed. This is when there is both high inflation and high unemployment. This is a condition that can not exist according to classic (or neo-liberal, the two words are interchangeable here) economics.

The thing that can bring this about is an external shock to the system. Without a doubt, this is exactly what has happened.

As with the 1970s', muddling about with the interest rate will do little to fix the problem. Further, the cure of Regan/Tacherism will not work for two reasons. Firstly, taxes are already at an extreme low and as seen by recent attempts to replicate Regan/Tacherism, there is less propensity to change behaviour as a result of further meddling. Secondly, producers are willing. This time, the issue is distribution, not raw supply.

Here the solution lies in much more targeted measures than broad general actions. Trucking is seeing fewer people willing to enter both due to perceived social status (which directly connects to a perception, true or not, of unreasonable treatment by law enforcement) and the fear of near job loss due to automation, potentially brought about by self-driving lorries. The first can be addressed through outreach and disincentives to law enforcement for undue interference with drivers along with guarantees of retraining in the event of job losses due to automation.

However, trucking isn't the end, Americas rail system is in desperate need of a refresh, along with bridges and highways. America has been coasting on the legacy of the infrastructure building boom of the fifties with the development of the defence highway network. This was largely responsible for the highly productive decades that followed. It is time to put money back into that piggy bank.

In the point of airguns, I suspect another drive of inflation in this small market is that many firearms shooters are making purchases in order to lessen the amount of firearms ammunition they are using. Purchases that previously would have been firearms purchases are not going into airguns. This is a big, and unprojected, bump in demand, matching a period of shortage and general price increases. Yes, prices will go up.
 
Upvote 0
In the short term inflation will go up but in the long term no one knows and IMHO long term inflation may not be so bad if not deflate a little. Back in the days where there are only few airgun manufactures so if they prices we are done. But thanks to global economy and many more manufactures so competition is a lot more.


Example: on high dollar side of things FX raised price 50 dollars while everyone else raise 200 dollar or even more. On more budget side of things crosman guns from Turkey did not go up in price and even enjoyed good discount this past holiday season. There are quite a few Chinese airgun makers like AEA that sell cool guns at very reasonable price that did not raise price. Competition is the key driver in keeping inflation at bay. 


Another example: crosman pellets were like 20 dollar a tin thanks to logistic issues but now they are back to 6.50 at Wally World. JSB starting to be in stock everywhere. A lot of people hoarded a ton of pellets so won’t have to buy a lot of pellets for a while which will drive demand down. I have like 30k in ammo of all sorts and only bought some small quantity of pellets to try recently.



once prices gone up to a certain point people will start to simply reject the prices either by principle or simply don’t have the money. Wages have not gone up to match the inflation for decades now and stimulus is ending so the extra cash people had supporting the inflation is gone. Energy prices have gone up which will push some prices up but that’s plain greedy/gauging, to which I salute the big oil and Middle East with my big fat middle finger, my electric car and solar panels, no I am not vegan but have considered joining PETA. I literally don’t know the gas price this year even with 2 V8 ICE cars still. We have the technologies/options now, this isn’t the 70s anymore!!! 


edit: another thing I want to point out is many of us bought a lot of guns last couple of years. Personally I will not buy another gun unless it’s something I really really want and it’s a good deal. So unless pellet prices go nuts I’m relative inflation proof when it comes to this hobby.


 
Upvote 0
My concern is having HPA to inflate my PCPs. They're hobby items, that they'll go up in price is a given. But I don't have to opt to pay those higher prices. So as it applies to PCPs? Inflation is handled by my compressor. As it applies to fuel, food, etc... Is the real issue. To most PCPs are a hobby, eating, staying sheltered and driving to work are not.
 
Upvote 0
To most PCPs are a hobby, eating, staying sheltered and driving to work are not.
Click to expand...



Actually. . . Unless there is a reason otherwise, I ride my bicycle to work. So, even though my car gets terrible mileage, I fill it up less than once a month. . . House is paid off, yes, it is a dump, but I purchased it outright for less than the estimate down on a lot of nicer houses. 

I was heavily impacted by a period of layoffs. At this point, always in the back of my mind, is the question, "can I afford this if I lose my job?"

But, yes, shooting is a hobby, it isn't on the first rungs of the pyramid of basic needs.
 
Upvote 0
I think what is more concerning is not the rising costs, but the cuts made behind the scenes to keep the profit margins up. In electronics for instance, cutting a few pennies per board may save thousands but at the risk if a lesser quality capacitor or MOSFET or even a complete redesign to use a cheaper chip more prone to failure, and the company may be forced to, just to secure the parts and components. Easy to do and the consumer would have no clue. Would you really know if Daystate used a cheaper quality battery or chip or if FX started outsourcing parts to save costs? I seriously doubt it and they certainly wouldn't advertise it. Profits are the ultimate driving force and upping costs can only offset the margin so much. At some point cuts will be made behind the scenes, wether it be cheaper labor and more outsourcing, cheaper parts, consolidating offerings or eliminating products altogether. The sad part is it puts immense pressure on the smaller and newer companies who are gaining a solid foothold. 
 
Upvote 0
Everything is going up,airguns are a small part.Yes air gun prices will continue to rise as will the prices of used air guns.

The prices started to go up way before this...I have many air gun catalogs that support this...

Still air gunning can be a rather inexpensive hobby, when you know how to go about out, settle for a BB gun,just kidding.

Truthfully my healthcare went up $150 a month in the last 5 years.


 
Upvote 0
At this point everyone ought to consider buying as much lead as they can afford, either swaging or casting their own ammo/slugs, and getting a good compressor and parts, etc, or else..... I did recently. Basically stock up on everything!!!

Because everything is going to become more scarce and much more expensive sooner than we think.

PREPARE - we haven't seen anything yet.

Research on Bitchute, Rumble, and Brandnewtube, so you see everything the main stream media "programming" doesn't report on or flat out lies about.

Klaus Schwab says "you'll own nothing and be happy". I say over my....
 
Upvote 0
I feel bad for the guys that are retired. All the money they saved, the pension, the 401k; none of it adjusts with inflation. If you were able to save a million dollars after you retired in 1990 it’s value is about half of what it was then. “$1,000,000 in 1990 is equivalent in purchasing power to about $2,151,094.11 today, an increase of $1,151,094.11 over 32 years. The dollar had an average inflation rate of 2.42% per year between 1990 and today, producing a cumulative price increase of 115.11%.” 


Only way to hedge against inflation is investing. Money is just a tool, never save it
 
Upvote 0
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom
Back
Home
Forums
Resources
Menu