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Textreme Field Target - Compilation of Results Dec 2021 through Sep 2022

Y'all chew on this. The image below is a compilation of results from quarterly Textreme Field Target matches held at Ranchito Robinson, Clifton, TX. These matches were held from Dec 2021 to Sep 2022. There was a two day match in June and I reported the two days separately.

Art "Podna" Womack
Team Wolfpack
@art.of.airgunning

Textreme Compilation of Results.png
 
Interesting, Art. I took the data and graphed some of it. You would expect the hit percentage to decrease as the Troyer goes up, and it generally does:

1662852285281.png


But there's great variability. The trendline is questionable given the wide variation in some of the lanes. If we take the lanes listed as affected by wind out of the equation, you get a pretty good look at the relationship we want from the Troyer measurement:

1662854925119.png


But if we look at just the lanes impacted more by wind, we lose much of that relationship. I'm not sure I would have even drawn a downward trendline here, given the variability in the data.

1662852643754.png


There is still a generally decreasing hit % with increasing Troyer, but not much, and there's significant deviation from that.

So, what's the point of all this? Well, if we are trying to use a Troyer calculation for Extreme Field Target courses in different locations so that we can compare and somewhat equalize their difficulty in terms of kill zone sizes, placements, etc.,

At least as far as this event in the 5 instances it was shot with an average of ~23 shooters each time,

1) while the Troyer calculation for extreme field target distances holds, it is much more accurate in the "non-wind" lanes, and far less predictive in the lanes affected by wind. If we are trying to standardize the Troyer measurement for courses in different geographies and locations, this could mean that a Troyer calculation for an Extreme Field Target course that was windy throughout many lanes would produce a Troyer factor that was not useful to compare to other less windy courses.

2) Based on this (limited) data, perhaps the Troyer for Extreme Field Target distances needs to account somewhat more for wind given it's increased effects on pellets shot at > 55 yds.
 
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Camber314-

Thanks for the analysis. Very interesting!

As far as I know there has been no wind "factor" settled on but as you point out the wind may be the biggest factor we deal with in this game. When looking at the standard deviation of average scores, March and the second day of June have the highest values. I have been at all of the shoots in Texas and I can attest that the wind was howling in March and was certainly blowing in June on the second day but I did not capture any hard data either day.

As far as trying to normalize courses for Troyer factor, or set "par" in golf terms, I have to ask if it is necessary. Pebble beach is what it is as is Augusta. Everyone shoots the same course under the same rules. Yes the weather changes over the course of the day but as Forrest Gump said, "stuff happens". I don't think we can nor should we try to get to an apples to apples comparison of courses across the country. Pay your money and take your chances.

My perception is that there is some kind of underlying "pissin match" match afoot in all the conversation around the scores shot at the various venues that were part of the Extreme Field Target Grand Prix series this year. In other words, "my course is harder than yours". Well, it seems to me the good shooters have done well everywhere they went. The fact remains that points are awarded to the best shooters of the day regardless of course difficulty.

Just sayin,

Art "Podna" Womack
Team Wolfpack
@art.of.airgunning
 
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THAT. iS. AWESOME!

Thanks for the # crunching to both Art and Wes.

The wind really is the great confounder, both on the shooting, and the analyzing sides.

The issue is that's it's so subjective, just like Art has noted in his data.

Here's where I'm at with it right now.....for AZ, the fall matches have kinda become the start of each new XFT "season." So I think starting with the Oct night match I'll start using difficulty factors for wind? But instead of just subjectively saying "windy" or not we can do a graded system? I mentioned something similar in Ben's night match announcement but I thinking we can use NWS reporting of wind speeds to figure out the highest wind speed measured during a match, recorded as close as we can to where the match happens.

So maybe multiply the course average T by:
1 if highest wind speed 5mph or less
1.5 if highest wind speed 6-10mph
2 if highest wind speed 11-15mph
2.5 if highest wind speed 16-20mph
3 if highest wind speed 21+

And, as always, I'm open to suggestions here.
 
Art,

Thanks for checking the analysis out, couldn't do it without the raw data you put together! I agree with you that you show up and shoot the course on the day you're there and the best shooters will usually prevail. I've only shot one XFT course, and don't know about any "pissin match" that exists.

Like Cole I just applied the same logic that is used in regular FT in an attempt to extend the Troyer analysis to our longer distances as it looks like the base equation may break down significantly with windy conditions. I just look at a Troyer and think "not too bad that day" or "wow that was a very challenging course for those guys". If I underperform on a course with a high Troyer that day, I just add that to my (large) bag of excuses.

Cole,

I think the only way to improve the relationship between Troyer and hit % is to try it!
 
Just a thought, overlay the weather patterns to the trend. As temps and humidity rose, endurance had some influence i’d bet. Probably more seen on individual cards but still a factor. Plus the distance between lanes could also play some part as the temps increased. Obviously Derrick is part machine so he doesn't count.

btw, i adjusted the ScoreNet analysis for Textreme . If anyone wants to send me card scores and I can run them for individual analysis. Art can testify to it! )View attachment 289024
 
A sliding scale for average wind speed, direction changes, and highest gusts would be helpful,,,, If we think we need to evaluate course difficulty across the different clubs hosting matches at all.

As mentioned above it really doesn't matter... everyone there is shooting the same conditions for the most part. Some competitors may shoot at a more tricky windy lane/lanes at a time of day that is more windy, but no way to deal with that, except for the MD to squad the top competitors close to each other, so they encounter those lanes at the same time... which I do when I can.

This year, the Nevada state match had winds up to 40mph that funneled through the canyon walls.. there is no scale to measure that really. There is no scale at all in the AAFTA troyer scale... just windy or not windy. Match Directors have to decide one or the other.. really not a good situation.

Wayne Burns
Match Director,
Ashland Air Rifle Range
 
JMO but the usefulness of the Troyer Factor is best suited as an MD tool for match planning. Attempt to use it to standardize results across different regions is not practical. Course design factors such course layouts that aggravate the shooters ability to find a standard wind dope or force the shooter to reposition their torso on a lane have substantial impact on scores.

It's better than nothing though.

K
 
Camber314-

Thanks for the analysis. Very interesting!

As far as I know there has been no wind "factor" settled on but as you point out the wind may be the biggest factor we deal with in this game. When looking at the standard deviation of average scores, March and the second day of June have the highest values. I have been at all of the shoots in Texas and I can attest that the wind was howling in March and was certainly blowing in June on the second day but I did not capture any hard data either day.

As far as trying to normalize courses for Troyer factor, or set "par" in golf terms, I have to ask if it is necessary. Pebble beach is what it is as is Augusta. Everyone shoots the same course under the same rules. Yes the weather changes over the course of the day but as Forrest Gump said, "stuff happens". I don't think we can nor should we try to get to an apples to apples comparison of courses across the country. Pay your money and take your chances.

My perception is that there is some kind of underlying "pissin match" match afoot in all the conversation around the scores shot at the various venues that were part of the Extreme Field Target Grand Prix series this year. In other words, "my course is harder than yours". Well, it seems to me the good shooters have done well everywhere they went. The fact remains that points are awarded to the best shooters of the day regardless of course difficulty.

Just sayin,

Art "Podna" Womack
Team Wolfpack
@art.of.airgunning
If the EOY GP champion is crowned based on the number of points scored, differences in course difficulty and environmental conditions and number of shots/lanes across all the matches shot will have an effect on the total number of points scored. Easy courses or courses with more targets will most likely have higher scores and more difficult, or windy courses or those with fewer targets will typically have lower scores. The resulting GP match totals might not reflect the true "best shooter" because a shooter that happened to shoot easier courses scored more points total. The situation above may or may not happen going forward, but I have seen it in other matches in the past.
Normalizing the scores at each match so the top shooter scores 100 and all others shooter scores are normalized to that top score, should eliminate any disparities in course length or difficulty. Normalization converts each shooters score to a percentage, and should minimize some of the discrepancies in course difficulty, length or environmental conditions. This method is not fool proof though, unless each course is equal with respect to all of the aforementioned factors. This possible solution comes from my experience shooting FT.
Jeff
 
As usual, Art has AGAIN gone way beyond the call of duty assembling all this data. Although I'm ALLERGIC to puzzles (of any kind, always), even at first glance I can take more from Art's data than anyone else because I know which and when I moved targets farther out in order to not only keep my shooters guessing and prevent them from posting perfect scores, but AGGRAVATE THEM as much as possible!🤬

Said 'repositioned' targets invariably show up in the data with a precipitous fall in the hit percentages the following match, then followed by a relatively steady increase in hit percentages as shooters acclimate to the increased difficulty(s). An excellent example is the standing lane 4. Those targets were moved farther after the December 2021 match.

My point is this. Wind and shooting conditions are not the only variables illustrated in the data (hit percentages), but also target and course evolution from match to match; almost invariably toward higher difficulty(s). As I often say, "There's a method to my madness(es)!" In this case, forcing my shooters to improve by presenting them increasingly challenging courses. Many of them attend EBR... better prepared, thanks to that sadistic TEXtreme match director.😱

Allow me to brag (again). That is the same approach I took as match director at Yegua Airgun Club, that paid off quite poignantly at the 2012 AAFTA Field Target National Championships in Oregon. Only three Yegua shooters attended, but we brought home SIX National Champion titles.😲

Wouldn't have happened without my tough love!:love: