I think a lot of zero problems come from not shooting enough rounds to get a statistically valid average point of impact.
If you shoot a 3 or 5 round group and then adjust, the odds your calculated average point of impact is the true average are very slim. This deception gets worse as the extreme dispersion and the mean radius get larger with less accurate rifles. Imagine putting 5 rounds randomly into 4 moa circle. How many times will those 5 rounds have an average centroid that correlates to the center of the circle? Almost never. So it’s important to fill up that circle.
If your rifle shoots a 0.25moa extreme spread for 20 shots, then you can probably get away with a 3 shot zero. If you’re curious to check point of impact variability try the following formula:
(Accuracy of the rifle in MOA) / (Square root of the number of shots) = (Point of impact variability in MOA)
Minimum number of shots to establish the rifle’s accuracy is 20-30 imo, backed by the guys at Hornady’s ballistic lab.
So my HW77 is a 3.5 moa gun. If I do 5 shots, my potential point of impact variability is : 3.5 / sqrt(5) = 1.565 moa.
Here’s a great demonstration from their podcast. This was real test from a real powderburner. They started with 5 shots. Note the point of impact. Then they kept going to 20 rounds. Look how far the average point of impact “moved” from the 5 round average.
View attachment 572368 I started shooting 20 rounds to zero my rifle and my “point of impact shifts” disappeared. That’s not to say your rifle doesn’t shift its point of impact. There are mechanical reasons some guns/sights can shift zero.
I can make my HW77 put 5 into a 1moa hole by just tossing cards until I get one. But realistically, it’s a 3-4moa gun if I shoot enough pellets out of the tin.
If I feel like my zero has shifted, I’ll put down 20 rounds and usually find that, no. It hadn’t shifted at all. Either the wind was pushing my rounds off or pure luck put 5 shots on one side of the target.
Just food for thought.