Umarex Notos first shot is off

In my recollection, whenever I had a random massive deflection like this it was a slightly loose barrel or moderator. A couple of shots shifted things to a happy place but when the gun was transported, it got out of whack.

sorry, that's all I got, best of luck!
Thanks, the chrono should be here tomorrow so I can get a little data then. Hoping to get it figured out