Sorry, I'm not trying to misrepresent your point. However if the pellet is only slightly unstable, to me that describes a shallow yaw angle which means the pellet will not enter the paper at a sufficiently obtuse angle to cause a meaningfully discernable oblong hole in the paper. That was why I used the phrase "beginning to tumble". In retrospect, I should have said on its way to tumbling, meaning it has begun to yaw so severely as to punch an oval hole into the paper. In practice, I don't observe that until it has gotten so severe as to produce what I would call keyholing. Up until that point, what happens is the head punches a hole through the paper before the skirt gets there, and there is little to no evidence it entered at a shallow angle. The skirt may leave a little tear around the perimeter of the hole but that same thing occurs when a pellet enters perfectly straight due to the random orientaton of paper fibers, so the cause isn't readily apparent until the pellet is very nearly sideways.