100 Yard Benchrest - Luck or Skill?

[Centercut]

There have been varying opinions on this question on a different Posting on this forum for quite a while now. I wanted to move this over from the EBR Target Challenge since that isn't what the Target Challenge was designed for, as lucky as those target scores may be...

So it goes like this, since the bullseye is 1/2 inch (approx.) and the best current airguns can only shoot one inch (approx.) at 100 yards, are your scores at 100 yards just luck, or does it also involve skill? Here are two opposing viewpoints...

Luck:



Much of the luck in this game is simply due to the fact that the 10 ring is too small for the equipment being used. Anytime you are trying to hit a 1/2” ring with a gun that cannot do it consistently in still conditions…you are relying on luck. If my gun shoots an average group of 1.25”….the best I can do with skill is to place that 1.25” group over the 1/2” ten ring every time. From there….luck takes over. The fact of the matter is that if you scored a 10 with an air rifle at 100y….you got lucky. The skill part is just getting your rifles group centered on the target. The 244 that I shot was simply a lucky card. I may have actually done a better job on some of the lower scored cards…but the chance was not on my side. That’s the folly of the current game. There is too much machismo involved for it to change now, though.

Skill:

Centercut

So let’s say you have a gun that consistently shoots 1” at 100 yards, and the target bull is 1/2”. This means that there is 1/4” around the bull that constitutes the “luck” factor. So now let’s look at typical EBR or RMAC winds, say 10mph from 90 degrees, which is fairly typical in those places. With a pellets BC of .050, the wind drift at 100 yards is approx. 8 inches. And let’s say it shifts from 10 down to 6 and up to 14, so you have a base drift of 8 inches and variances from 5 to 12 inches. Not only do you have to hold for the 8 inches but also read those changes and shoot when conditions are best for you. You must judge that 7 inch variance prior to pulling the trigger. IMHO, that 1/4” “luck” factor pales to insignificance in comparison to the 7 inch “skill” factor. In this case by a margin of 28 to 1, or approx. 97% skill to 3% luck.

So what do you think? 

 

[thomasair]

Your supposition is based on the idea that the best current airguns are consistently capable of 1” groups at 100y. I have seen no evidence of this at all. I shoot little 5 shot groups all the time...but cannot shoot a 1” 25 shot group with any regularity....even in great conditions. 


Lets see evidence of that consistent 1” 25 shot group at 100y before we make that leap.

Mike

 

[thomasair]

BTW...I never said that the game is all luck. That would be dumb to say. What I said was that having the 10 ring smaller than the capability of the equipment is foolish because it introduces luck that does not need to be there.

Making the rings bigger or moving the targets in closer would fix the issue, and I believe you would begin to see repeat winners at 100y events. The current target separates the lower level shooters from the upper well enough, but does a poor job of determining the BEST shooter at any event.


Mike 

 

[bubblerboy64]

I think the only debate is the percentage of luck. And that varies depending on the conditions does it not? AND your skill level. My gut tells me the degree of luck is significantly higher then 3 % it certainly would be for me because I’m pretty poor at judging conditions so if I was to shoot a good score I’d have to credit luck.
I used to shoot a lot of silhouette competitions. For the very best shooters there wasn’t much luck in it for them. Those of us in the middle of the hunt the deference between a good score and a bad was whether the close ones where on the edge of the target or just off.
So luck is not a constant (in my opinion) and varies from shooter to shooter. For some of us being lucky is better then being good. 
Interesting topic . I’m not certain on this but I’m thinking that skill is way more important and the more skill you have the less you need luck. Make any sense to you Mike?
Looking at this a little differently. For a world class shooter in silhouette in a 120 shot match a good score is 105. So his luck will vary from say 102 to 107. For an average shooter his average score might be 70 but his spread is wider say from 55 to 80 . That’s what I mean by luck not being a constant 

 

[Centercut]

Your supposition is based on the idea that the best current airguns are consistently capable of 1” groups at 100y. I have seen no evidence of this at all. I shoot little 5 shot groups all the time...but cannot shoot a 1” 25 shot group with any regularity....even in great conditions. 

Lets see evidence of that consistent 1” 25 shot group at 100y before we make that leap.

Mike

Your mission, should you choose to accept, is to shoot a 25 shot 1" group with your space shuttle Thomas. You've shot a few cards with none outside the 9 ring already. Plus as you know, that was an (approx.) for a hypothetical situation, right?

Back to our regularly scheduled programming...

 

[Franklink]

Luck or skill?

From my handful of attempts shooting airguns on paper at 100 yards..........

I don't think it's an either/or scenario here, but a both type of thing. Also, I think statistical probability and experience are also probably better terms than luck and skill. 

For the statistical probability (luck)......lots of ways to look at this......were the odds in your favor that the particular lot of pellets you're working with are consistent? Wind conditions? If you live in a place where the wind is over 15mph 250 days out of the year, you are statistically going to have worse "luck" putting that pellet into a 1/2 inch circle than someone who lives somewhere thats average wind speeds are 0-5mph. Do you shoot A LOT of 100 yard groups? If you're shooting multiple Centercut EBR Challenge Targets a day, your odds of having some really good scores are better than somebody who doesn't put that many pellets down range (blind squirrel and the nut theory). And that high volume shooting also leads to the experience factor......

For the experience (skill)..........if you haven't shot enough to have gained the experience of knowing about how much to hold off for certain wind speeds/directions, how to time your shots with the gusts, how to read flags, good trigger control, etc, then you won't be able to put them inside that inch. Without having the requisite experience to get them inside the magic 1 inch circle @ 100 yards, that pellet has zero statistical chance of landing in the 1/2 inch ten ring. 

 

[thomasair]

I’ve already determined that the equipment is currently not up to the challenge. Not mine or anyone else’s.

The actual question is why have the 10 ring smaller than the capability of the equipment? There is no reason to introduce chance when you don’t have to.

Mike 

 

[thomasair]

Bubblerboy....your analogy is not very good. The equipment used in the silhouette matches you are talking about is capable of knocking over the silhouette 100% of the time. If the rifles could not reliably hit the silhouette each time...it would sure be a hell of a different game, wouldn’t it?

Mike

 

[bubblerboy64]

Bubblerboy....your analogy is not very good. The equipment used in the silhouette matches you are talking about is capable of knocking over the silhouette 100% of the time. If the rifles could not reliably hit the silhouette each time...it would sure be a hell of a different game, wouldn’t it?

Mike

That’s true for sure but: I’m suggesting that with respect to scores in any competition increased skill reduces the affect of luck. Just on the score SPREAD . Think of gymnastics and sticking a landing. It’s luck to get a perfect landing but the best do it more often. A world class gymnast might average 9 out of 10. So if he’s lucky he gets 10 out of ten. If a good competitor gets 10 it’s more luck then skill. Just thinking how skill reduces the need for and the significance of luck as reflected in the scores of individual competitors. I may be wrong thinking on this ??
So taking this to the BR competition . You have to factor in the limits of the rifle. Seems to me that just affects every one equally and is not a factor in the ranking of scores. It may affect the totals ( making a total of say 90 out of 100) the best possible) but not changing the individual rankings 

 

[thomasair]

You are still completely missing the point. The 10 ring is considerably smaller than the reliable capability of the best equipment.

What is the point of that?

Mike 

 

[bubblerboy64]

You are still completely missing the point. The 10 ring is considerably smaller than the reliable capability of the best equipment.

What is the point of that?

Mike

OK so let’s say we’re playing basket ball and we raise the net a foot. Same thing isn’t it? Better players still win the score is just lower 

 

[thomasair]

That doesn’t add luck to the game, it increases the difficulty. The equipment is still capable of making the shots.

If you designed a basket ball that changed sizes at unpredictable intervals and make the hoop smaller than the biggest size....you would be getting closer.

The concern is the equipment not being able to accomplish the task each time.

Mike

 

[biohazardman]

I shoot less than 1 inch groups quite often .5 with my Impact at 100 yards but very seldom in the center of the target cuz the wind changes constantly where I am. As far as twenty five shot groups that is a bit excessive as it brings in a myriad of external conditions that I have little to no control over into play. I feel lucky to get a good three shot group but now and then if timed just right and I shoot fast enough I can get five in less than an inch. If I take my time and try to guess at all of the wind changes I will most often get a three or four inch groups at 100. Once again seldom near the center of the target unless I do a sight in shot first to see what the wind is really doing which takes away from the time I have to shoot the group before the wind changes again. So much of this is like a calm windless day at the range luck.

 

[Yo]

All in the EQUIPMENT AND HOME MADE PELLET SWAGER or FROM SELECT CERTAIN DIE LOT OLD JSB GRAY TIN PELLETS. 1/4" groups ARE POSSIBLE AT 100 YARDS UNDER WINDLESS CONDITIONS! ONLY CERTAIN GUNS ARE CAPABLE AND IF YOURE LUCKY ENOUGH TO HAVE AN EXCEPTIONAL OEM BARREL FROM THE FACTORY. NOT ALL OF THE SAME BRAND GUNS NOR MODELS ARE EQUAL IN ACCURACY AT 100 YARDS. YOU MAYBE GET ONE ON 50 CHANCE 0R ONE IN 1000 OR BE JUST LUCK ENOUGH TO BUY A USED ONE FROM AN HONEST SELLER NEEDING THE CASH WHO ALREADY PROVED IT. I BOUGHT A USED (undisclosed for now) SELLER CLAIMED SUB 1/2" AT 100 YARDS HIS LAST KEEPER NEEDED CASH DESPERATELY. THAT ONE IS THE MOST ACCURATE (undisclosed) I GOT AND I HAVE 6 OF THEM ALL IN THE SAME CALIBER.

 

[Yo]

This is the main reason I buy multiples of the same guns in the same calibers aside from having spares in case one breaks and having multiples wearing different stocks.

 

[Yo]

Go ahead and try 5 different guns (same models same calibers) and go shoot them all bench vised at 100 yards indoors and unobtainable Gray tin JSBs or some select OLD RED tins you know which ones I'm talking about or H&HEM swage your own pellets then you will see what I mean.

 

[Yo]

CC the Redwolf and Pulsars are an EXCELLENT START especially with the programmer (AN AVSOLUTE MUST FOR 100 YARD TUNERS) OR the Heliboard from Greece. I BET THOMAS WILL CATCH UP REAL SOON. One of my Thomas BR guns had already been a test bed for it (SORRY MIKE). 

THATS THOMAS MIKE NOT CC

 

[Centercut]

Yo, like this?

with this?

what exactly are you testing?

 

[tommyb]

I’ve already determined that the equipment is currently not up to the challenge. Not mine or anyone else’s.

The actual question is why have the 10 ring smaller than the capability of the equipment? There is no reason to introduce chance when you don’t have to.

Mike

Mike

I think I have seen other posts or threads whereby others also would not mind seeing the EBR targets enlarged for various reasons. I don’t shoot competitive BR, but I would love to see the targets become a bit more forgiving.

In your view, what would you consider to be a more realistic sizing so that the gun(s) are more capable of shooting tight groups around the enlarged “10” ring and presumably larger 9 and 8 ring diameters?

If this was implemented in the major BR matches, how would that change your POV? As an illustration only, would this reduce the luck factor in your mind? Or, does it just allow more shooters to hit higher scores and not just the top tier shooters? 

I guess I’m thinking that the top shooters will still always score higher scores than 2nd tier shooters on average, and let’s assume that all shooters’ guns are more capable because of the more forgiving targets. I know this is not reality, but I’m trying to follow the logic. 

So, other than everyone shooting relatively better scores at EBR matches, how does this change the “luck vs. skill” equation and leave less room for chance?

 

[Yo]

EXACTAMUNDO!

Secret till it's done shhhhhh...